Is Canada still stuck in recession? The indicators say yes, no and maybe
In this world, you either work for a business or run a business (big or small) – which means the ‘recession’ affects your day-to-day activities. What’s your take on this question: “Is the recession over?”. Well, Harvey Enchin of the Vancouver Sun gives us his take…..
Economies tend to free-fall into recession, but the road back is long and full of potholes
By Harvey Enchin, Vancouver Sun
It’s one of life’s great frustrations that economies tend to free-fall into recession but recover in fits and starts.
History shows it can take two or three times longer to climb from the trough to the peak than it takes to go the other way. In fact, an entire generation passed before the losses from the Great Depression were recovered.
Using the Toronto Stock Exchange as a proxy for the Canadian economy, it took 12 months for the composite index to drop 45 per cent during the 1981-82 recession, but two years to recover the lost ground. And it took four years to regain the one-year, 25-per-cent decline associated with the recession that began in the second quarter of 1990.
The latest economic indicators do not suggest a recovery that will deviate from the norm. “The road to recovery will be full of potholes and detours,” the Financial Post warned last spring.
The economy hit one of those potholes last month when 43,000 jobs were lost, raising the unemployment rate nationally to 8.6 per cent from 8.4 per cent and reversing two months of job gains. In British Columbia, employment fell by 12,900, which drove the unemployment rate to 8.3 per cent from 7.4 per cent. Over the past 12 months, employment in B.C. has fallen by 52,000 jobs, or 2.2 per cent.
Speaking of detours, the value of non-residential building permits in B.C. dropped $387 million, or 68 per cent, in September from an exceptional surge in August, when permits rose to the highest level in 10 years, spurred by the government’s fiscal stimulus. In the first nine months of 2009, permits are down 10.5 per cent from a year ago. Commercial vacancies are rising and rents are softening. Central 1 Credit Union forecasts a 20-per-cent drop in non-residential construction investment this year.
These figures reflect flatlining gross domestic product, which showed no growth in July and a small contraction in August. Without a significant jump in September, third-quarter GDP could be negative; announcements a few weeks ago heralding the end of the recession would be proven premature.
Economists had expected the downturn to trim GDP by about 3.3 per cent peak to trough, and that would be good news since it is less severe than the 3.4 per cent drop in the early 1990s or the 4.9-per-cent decline in the 1981-82 recession. But they had also predicted growth of two per cent in the July-to-September period and that now seems all but impossible.
On the positive side, Canada’s residential real estate rebound has been remarkable, and the dip — where there was one — was shallow and fleeting. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, existing home sales across Canada in the latest three months climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record. In Vancouver, year-over-year sales were up 128 per cent. Housing starts were also up in October, with a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 157,300 units, up from 149,300 in October, generally meeting economists’ expectations.
After Canada’s bravado about its conservative fiscal policies, solid banking sector, manageable household debt and other virtues that allowed it to weather the recession better than other places, notably the United States, it appears the country remains mired in recession while the U.S. has recorded robust GDP growth of 3.5 per cent in the third quarter. Of course, the U.S. economy was prodded by massive stimulus and the recovery may retreat when it is withdrawn. But if it is sustained, the U.S. will easily surpass Canada’s economic growth, given the trends seen so far.
Canada may have been too smug to assume its only problem was weak demand for exports, which account for roughly 40 per cent of the economy.
There may be more homegrown economic issues to be addressed than the political elite has acknowledged.
henchin@vancouversun.com
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SOLD FOR $289,900!!!
END UNIT Townhome at “Veranda” by award winning ADERA. Located minutes from all amenities. Large living room with modern fireplace and additional windows allowing more natural light, thanks to the End Unit location. Master Bedroom withspacious walk thru closet to large 5 pc bathroom w/deep soaker tub, separate shower and double sinks. Kitchen features built in microwave, tile backsplash, large walk-in pantry & bonus eating area leads to backyard deck for BBQ’ing. 2 pc washroom on the main floor. Alarm system, smoke detectors and window screens included. Garage has plenty of space for 2 cars + additional storage. Located beside visitor’s parking for added convenience. Well maintained by Original owners. For the FULL DETAILS ON THIS HOME, CLICK HERE.
http://balasabas.com/mylistings.html#32-16233-83RD-Avenue-Surrey-mylistings-9500327.property
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AURA – Never lived in Upper Level Townhome! GST included!
AURA – Never lived in Upper Level Townhome! GST included in this show piece unit! Main floor is fully covered laminate hardwood floors! All appliances included, Whirlpool Stove and dishwasher PLUS Fridgidaire Fridge for that modern stainless steel look! Fireplace in the Living Room. Large Front patio right in front of the playground PLUS back balcony for BBQing all year round! 2 parking stalls for you (or rent out what you don’t need) PLUS tons of visitor parking! Minutes to Shopping, Dining and Recreation in an UP AND COMING AREA of CENTRAL SURREY! Again, NO GST and 2-5-10 Warranty in Place! Rental and Pets allowed! Shows Awesome! Call TODAY for your private showing! For the FULL DETAILS ON THIS HOME, CLICK HERE.
http://balasabas.com/mylistings.html#204-13958-108TH-Avenue-Surrey-mylistings-9783881.property
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GONE!!! FOR $373,500
Enjoy the lifestyle at the Quay! Bright and spacious 3 bedrooms + den, corner unit, Like New! New engineered H/W flooring, new paint, large new upgraded kitchen with granite countertop & top of the line Bosh appliances & eating area, upgraded light fixtures, super large master bdrm w/ deluxe ensuite, walk-in closet. Walk to shopping & skytrain! Enjoy the boardwalk, the river cruise & afternoon tea at the public market while watching the boats drift by! Move in and enjoy! Move in anytime.
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INVESTOR ALERT! BUILDERS OPPORTUNITY CALLING!
Cedar Hills home with basement suite rented. Lots of NEW homes on the street. Perfect for Builder/Investor/Handyman! Large lot 8052 square feet! Basement suite has new paint. Balcony is only3 yrs old. Call now to book your showing! For the FULL DETAILS ON THIS HOME, CLICK HERE.
http://balasabas.com/mylistings.html#12629-96A-Avenue-Surrey-mylistings-9748371.property
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FABULOUS! Describe this bright spacious well layed out court yard facing unit located on the quiet side of the building. This 2 bed/2 bath 975 sq.ft. unit is in excellent condition, shows well & has had many recent updates. Don’t miss this one! Melrose Place is a 4 storey, 14 year young, rain screened building, centrally located & within distance to many amenities. Features: freshly painted, tiled entrance, room laundry area, excellent counter/cupboard space, separate eating & dining areas, large living room w/gas fireplace & excellent sized balcony w/peaceful inner-court yard views. The huge master has walk in closet & ensuite. Close to: transit, recreation & all levels of schools.
For full details, please click here:
Asking Price $209,000
Sold Price $204,000
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FOR SALE: 3 Bed / 3 Bath END UNIT TOWNHOME at the “FRASERVIEW TERRACE” in North Surrey/Whalley
END UNIT, UPPER-LEVEL TOWNHOME,
in Fraserview Terrace!
1 YEAR NEW Complex! All Warranties still in place! Located in a quiet location within the Complex, away from the King George and Skytrain noise. Modern finishings with laminatethroughout the main level, tile in the kitchen and washrooms. Upper floor has high-quality carpet. No units above, in-suite laundry. Entrance balcony can house your plants and patio chairs for relaxing. Balcony off the kitchen/breakfast eating area. Upper floors boasts high-ceilings in all of the bedrooms. Plenty of space for your family or your office. Easy to show, call today! For the FULL DETAILS ON THIS HOME, CLICK HERE.
http://balasabas.com/mylistings.html#43-11255-132ND-Street-Surrey-mylistings-9585742.property
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END UNIT Townhome at “Veranda” by award winning ADERA. Located minutes from all amenities. Large living room with modern fireplace and additional windows allowing more natural light, thanks to the End Unit location. Master Bedroom with spacious walk thru closet to large 5 pc bathroom w/deep soaker tub, separate shower and double sinks. Kitchen features built in microwave, tile backsplash, large walk-in pantry & bonus eating area leads to backyard deck for BBQ’ing. 2 pc washroom on the main floor. Alarm system, smoke detectors and window screens included. Garage has plenty of space for 2 cars + additional storage. Located beside visitor’s parking for added convenience. Well maintained by Original owners. Easy to show. For the FULL DETAILS ON THIS HOME, CLICK HERE.
http://balasabas.com/mylistings.html#32-16233-83RD-Avenue-Surrey-mylistings-9500327.property
You can also visit us at http://www.VanCity-Listings.com for FULL DETAILS of this, and other townhomes for sale in your area.
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Rob Balasabas
ReMax Central Real Estate
Phone 778-889-6213
Web http://www.balasabas.com
Email rob@balasabas.com
Blog on balasabas.com http://balasabas.com/blog.html
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